The Prediction Ledger records forecasts before their outcomes are known. It separates those forward claims from patterns recognized after an event. Each forecast has a stable identifier, a fixed publication record, and a bounded observation window. Observable indicators and failure conditions determine its score. The record keeps hits, partial results, misses, and unresolved outcomes together.
A claim enters this ledger when it risks being wrong in public. Prophecy feeds and catalogs of meaningful events serve other purposes. Framework Dependency Map identifies each concept’s place and the page that owns its definition. The ledger instead preserves what a forecast committed to before events supplied an answer.
The initial six forecasts were committed on June 22, 2026, in notes/near-term-predictions.md. Commit 4d61e62 fixes their publication record. Later wording can clarify measurement. It cannot extend the original window or weaken the failure condition.
Status vocabulary
Open means the observation window is active or has yet to begin. A Hit meets the stated indicator within that window and at the specified scale. A Partial meets some indicators while falling short of the full condition. A Miss closes the window without the required indicator. Unresolved means the available public record cannot support a defensible score after the window closes.
Active forecasts
| ID | Forecast window | Forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| TW-P001 | 2025–2027 | Elevated instability and disclosure pressure culminate in acknowledgment beyond UAP or a visible institutional reversal | Open |
| TW-P002 | 2028 | A consciousness or institutional event of comparable symbolic magnitude coincides with the Artemis IV-era lunar milestone | Open |
| TW-P003 | 2028–2030 | A major financial or institutional restructuring lands near the 1945 → 1973 → 2001 → 2029 recursion | Open |
| TW-P004 | 2029–2031 | A major health signal follows large-scale next-generation wireless deployment | Open |
| TW-P005 | 2028–2029 | Multiple clocks converge on a civilizational inflection comparable in structural consequence to 2001 | Open |
| TW-P006 | 2038–2042 | A major civilizational inflection lands near the 2040 convergence | Open |
TW-P001 · Turbulence and disclosure boundary
Published: June 22, 2026. Window: January 1, 2025 through December 31, 2027.
Forecast. Experiencer reports, institutional instability, disclosure pressure, and factional conflict remain elevated during the window. Either of two events supplies the decisive indicator. One is official acknowledgment of non-human intelligence beyond the category UAP. The other is a visible crackdown that reverses the disclosure trajectory. Program closure, prosecution, reclassification, or equivalent institutional force qualifies as that reversal.
Resolution. A hit requires either decisive event by the end of 2027. Hearings and unresolved videos remain supporting evidence. Testimony, documentaries, and further document releases also remain below the decisive threshold. A quiet stall without acknowledgment or reversal scores a miss.
Current state. Open. Surface events supply evidence through four tags: disclosure-is-permissioned, named-usaps-enter-open-record, disclosure-produces-public-physical-evidence, and 2027-nhi-ack-or-crackdown.
TW-P002 · Artemis correspondence
Published: June 22, 2026. Window: the ninety days surrounding the first Artemis IV-era crewed lunar-surface milestone. Publication provisionally associated that milestone with 2028.
Forecast. A consciousness, disclosure, or institutional event of comparable symbolic magnitude occurs within that same window. Simultaneity and scale determine the correspondence. The event’s direction remains open between irreversible disclosure and intensified enclosure.
Resolution. A rescheduled mission moves the observation window with the milestone, while the width remains ninety days. A hit requires a dated event with lasting institutional consequences. Its score also requires a written comparison of that event’s scale with the lunar milestone. Routine media attention and symbolic coincidence fall below this threshold. An event selected after extending the window cannot resolve the forecast.
The lunar milestone occurring without a qualifying counterpart scores a miss.
Current state. Open. The mission date and measurement rubric require review before the window begins.
TW-P003 · Twenty-eight-year recursion
Published: June 22, 2026. Window: January 1, 2028 through December 31, 2030.
Forecast. A major financial or institutional restructuring occurs near the fourth interval of 1945 → 1973 → 2001 → 2029. Its expected form concerns finance and infrastructure. Monetary regime change, settlement architecture, or sovereign-debt reorganization supplies that form. A comparable transfer in the operating basis of institutions also qualifies.
Resolution. A hit requires a formal change affecting multiple major economies or institutions whose operation matters to the wider system. Market volatility and an ordinary recession remain below the threshold. Proposed legislation and a product launch also fall short. Closure of the window without a qualifying structural change scores a miss.
Current state. Open. Surface events tagged programmable-money-rails-advance supply the primary evidence stream.
TW-P004 · EMF and health correlation
Published: June 22, 2026. Window: January 1, 2029 through December 31, 2031. The forecast depends on substantial next-generation wireless deployment beginning during 2028–2030.
Forecast. A population-level health signal follows deployment. Its geographic or temporal pattern is consistent with exposure.
Resolution. Scoring health outcomes first requires a documented deployment that meets the condition. A hit requires preregistered outcomes and an exposure gradient: variation in exposure must correspond to the measured health pattern. The evidence must survive adjustment for obvious confounders, meaning other factors that can produce the apparent relationship. A general health crisis without an exposure relationship remains unresolved. Documented deployment followed by no qualifying signal through 2031 scores a miss.
Current state. Open and conditional. The outcome variables and data sources require preregistration before 2029.
TW-P005 · Composite convergence
Published: June 22, 2026. Window: January 1, 2028 through December 31, 2029.
Forecast. Financial restructuring, disclosure pressure, and a visible consciousness or governance shift combine into a civilizational inflection. Its structural consequences are comparable to 2001.
Resolution. A hit requires lasting state change in at least two of three domains: money, disclosure, and governance or collective attention. Each qualifying change alters access, authority, or infrastructure beyond a single news cycle. One qualifying domain scores a partial. No qualifying domains scores a miss.
Current state. Open. Surface Events state-change fields supply the vocabulary for measuring these changes.
TW-P006 · The 2040 convergence
Published: June 22, 2026. Window: January 1, 2038 through December 31, 2042.
Forecast. Independent long-cycle models converge on a major civilizational inflection centered near 2040. The prediction leaves the event type broad. That breadth places a higher burden on the magnitude required for resolution.
Resolution. A hit requires a globally consequential discontinuity comparable to 2001 in institutional, technological, demographic, or civilizational effect. The final rubric must define comparison indicators by the end of 2037. Failure to establish that rubric before the window opens automatically limits the outcome to unresolved. It cannot then receive a hit score.
Current state. Open. This forecast has the longest horizon and least specificity of the initial six.
Scoring discipline
The ledger preserves the original text, later clarifications, evidence for and against, and a resolution note. Surface Events can attach evidence to a prediction identifier and adjust its recorded confidence. They cannot alter the forecast’s window, threshold, or publication record.
Declared indicators govern qualitative scores. Future forecasts expressed as probabilities should publish a numeric probability and use Brier scoring. That score measures the squared difference between the forecast probability and the observed outcome. Aggregate performance must include the full set of forecasts, with misses and unresolved cases visible. A selected headline success rate conceals the commitments that the ledger exists to retain.
References
TimePsyop repository. “Near-Term Predictions from the Framework’s Clocks.” Commit 4d61e62035500fde411d7c2c30ac60bf770b5fc2, June 22, 2026.
Brier, Glenn W. “Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability.” Monthly Weather Review 78, no. 1 (1950): 1–3.
Tetlock, Philip E., and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown, 2015.